Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [June 2026]

Sydney

• Market performance: Sydney’s market softened through the month, with dwelling values moving lower across the broader market even as annual growth remained positive.
• Key Insights: Buyer conditions were increasingly balanced, as weaker sales, higher advertised supply and pressure in lower-priced houses gave purchasers more room to compare options.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: In Melbourne, values continued to ease, extending a subdued pattern that has left the city well behind stronger-performing capitals over recent years.
• Key Insights: A key feature was caution across buyers and sellers, with soft demand, elevated listings and comparatively resilient rental yields shaping a more restrained market.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: Brisbane held a positive trajectory, with dwelling values rising across the month and quarter while the pace of gains moderated from earlier strength.
• Key Insights: Across the city, growth was strongest through more affordable southern and outer areas, while rents and yields continued to reflect tight rental conditions.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance: Adelaide remained in growth territory, with values still advancing despite the broader national slowdown and momentum becoming less forceful overall.
• Key Insights: The clearest strength sat across northern, central and hills markets, where relatively accessible price points supported demand while affordability pressures remained relevant.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: Perth continued to outperform most capitals, with values rising solidly across houses and units and the city remaining at the leading edge of capital growth.
• Key Insights: Market strength was broad, spanning south-eastern, coastal and northern areas, although the broader analysis pointed to easing momentum even in stronger cities.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: Canberra moved lower over the month and quarter, placing it among the softer capitals despite annual values remaining higher than a year earlier.
• Key Insights: The market showed particular weakness in lower-priced houses and units, while select districts still recorded growth and rental conditions remained comparatively stable.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market performance: Hobart recorded renewed gains, with dwelling values improving over the month and quarter while still sitting below its earlier cyclical high.
• Key insights: A notable theme was uneven local performance, with northern and outer Hobart areas doing better while affordability and softer turnover kept conditions measured.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market performance: Darwin was among the strongest capital markets, with values rising across the month and quarter and annual momentum staying comparatively elevated.
• Key insights: Rental market conditions stood out, as higher yields and firm rental growth indicated investor appeal, while Palmerston and inner areas carried much of the growth profile.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

Here are the key takeaways from the latest value trends across capitals and regions, showing long-term growth, recent momentum, and where each market sits in the cycle.

• The Cotality HVI table points to a market that remains broadly resilient, with the national index at peak and values up 34.5% over five years and 75.7% over ten years.
• Regional markets continue to show stronger long-term momentum than the capitals, with combined regional values at peak and up 103.9% over the past decade, compared with 68.0% for the combined capitals.
• The capital city picture is more uneven. Combined capitals are only 0.3% below their peak, but performance varies sharply between markets that are still at record highs and those that remain below earlier cyclical peaks.
• Perth stands out as one of the strongest performers, sitting at peak and recording a 91.4% gain over five years, the highest among the capital city markets listed.
• Brisbane and Adelaide also remain at peak, supported by very strong medium- and long-term growth, with ten-year gains of 120.2% and 111.9% respectively.
• Sydney remains below its recent peak by 2.1%, although its longer-term performance is still solid, with values up 57.5% over the past decade.
• Melbourne continues to lag the major capital city markets, sitting 3.2% below peak and posting the weakest five-year growth among the capitals at just 3.3%.
• Hobart’s cycle appears more mixed, with values still 1.4% below peak despite a substantial 95.6% rise over the past ten years.
• Darwin is at peak, but its longer-term growth profile is comparatively modest, with values up 32.0% over ten years, the weakest decade result in the table.
• Regional Western Australia is the standout regional performer over five years, with values up 93.3%, while Regional Queensland leads on the ten-year measure with a 117.7% rise.
• The data reinforces a more selective market narrative: affordability, migration, local supply conditions and relative value appear to be driving stronger outcomes outside the most expensive capital city markets.

Australian Property Market Forecast

Australia’s property market is likely to move through a softer phase, with national values drifting sideways to mildly lower rather than entering a sharp downturn. The slowdown is already broadening, led by weaker conditions in Sydney and Melbourne, while stronger markets such as Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are still rising but losing momentum. Regional markets should remain comparatively resilient, although they too are likely to cool as affordability constraints spread beyond the capitals.

The main pressure points are stretched household budgets, high borrowing costs, weaker confidence and a more cautious investor backdrop. These demand-side headwinds are being partly offset by tight rental markets, population growth, limited new housing supply and a still-resilient labour market. The result is likely to be a more selective market, where price growth becomes harder to sustain and performance varies sharply by city, price point and local supply conditions.

The Australian banks forecast:

• • ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.

• • CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.

• • NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.

• • Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.

• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.

• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.

• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out.

Houses Clock Key Takeaways

Units Clock Key Takeaways

• Sydney, Bundaberg, Burnie/Devonport, Mount Gambier and Toowoomba sit at the peak of the units market, indicating these locations are at the strongest point in the cycle.
• Alice Springs, Bathurst and Launceston have moved into the starting to decline phase, suggesting momentum may be easing.
• Port Macquarie is approaching the bottom of the market, placing it late in the downswing phase.
• Ballina/Byron Bay and the Southern Highlands are positioned at the bottom of the market, where conditions appear weakest but may be nearing a turning point.
• Recovery is underway in Canberra, Central Coast, Geelong, Lismore, Melbourne and Newcastle, with these markets placed in the “start of recovery” stage.
• A large group of locations are in the rising market phase, including Adelaide, Brisbane, Darwin, Hobart, Perth, Gold Coast, Townsville, Cairns, Broome and several regional centres.
• Gladstone, Mildura, Port Hedland, Shepparton, Sunshine Coast and Whitsunday are approaching the peak, meaning they remain in an upswing but may be nearing the top of the cycle.

Conclusion

Australia’s housing market is moving into a more cautious phase, shaped by stretched affordability, higher interest rates, softer confidence and renewed inflation risks. Supply constraints, population growth and resilient labour market conditions are still providing some support, but they are no longer enough to offset the broader loss of momentum. Conditions are likely to remain uneven across regions and price points, with slower growth and softer values becoming the more likely path ahead.